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Predictions
July 1997

The Malthusian rationale for predictions in the spheres of politics and security issues, is predicated on the assumption that scarcity produces conflict. If Lester Brown is correct that since 1990 or so we have moved into a new era of scarcity (see his books on Who Will Feed China [1995], and Tough Choices [1996]) and since world population continues to grow at about 79 million annually, we can predict a continuation of conflict in many areas.

Predictions for the United States

• We will observe more and more political, economic and racial conflict as our population continues to grow by more than 2.5 million annually (more than 50% due to immigration and the children of immigrants) We are already observing a recrudescence of racist incidents, a retreat of affirmative action, and a general retreat to pre-1940s mentality of scarcity and class warfare.
• The 1996 Terrorism Bill is an example of creeping totalitarianism and fascism in this country. As terrorist incidents continue, so will the repression of the state which will be supported by the majority. As the minority continue to be repressed, terrorist incidents will multiply and repression will be increased in a vicious circle. The end result will likely be an end to any significant dissent.

  The great threat to the State will be the indebtedness of a critical mass of its people/institutions. The current signs of higher and higher consumer debt during a period of relative prosperity is an important warning.

  It may be that the advent of the centrist Bill Clinton to the presidency, and reactionary, anti-minority judges to the Supreme Court such as Scalia (Reagan appointee) and Clarence Thomas (Bush appointee) are symptoms of conflict generated by scarcity.

• The collapse of the stock market. The precipitous rise of the stock market in 1996-1997 is a worrying sign of the coming collapse. The collapse will come sooner rather than later but surely well before 2007 and very likely even sooner.

  The welfare "reform" law of 1996 signed by President Clinton will have much to do with the collapse of stability in several cities and may be part of a larger collapse. As many have already pointed out, the job market cannot absorb the new workers that the law envisions. Some pundits will observe that the amount that we used to spend on welfare was a relatively cheap method of dealing with and containing structural unemployment.

South Africa

• When the end of the Mandela era comes, as one day it must, we will see a slow or quick unravelling of the political and economic structure of the economy. At the end of the day, there is a reasonable chance that an apartheid- like system will be restored.

The Middle East

• The amateurish bumbling and incompetence of the Netanyahu regime in Israel has actually postponed the coming Israeli war with Syria which may trigger large scale expulsions of the Palestinians. As of the summer of 1997, Netanyahu no longer had the political capital to follow through with such bellicose plans. Look for increasing talk of war when Netanyahu is replaced.
• Separatist movements as in Quebec, northern Italy and Spain will continue to grow stronger as will fascist parties in France, India and elsewhere.

The World of Technology

• Meaningful human travel in outer space will quickly recede as an achievable goal because our resource base is constantly shrinking and such expensive ventures will be difficult to fund.

World Flashpoints for Future Conflict

• Bosnia
• China and Sprately Islands
• Middle East
• India and Pakistan
• Greece and Turkey

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